Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 4434 · DEN → BWI

departs 11:45 AM MT · arrives 5:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4434 · DEN → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?