Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4450 · DTW → DEN
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.