Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4457 · MCI → SAN
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.