Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4474 · BNA → HOU

departs 10:45 PM CT · arrives 12:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ 10pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.24 in

HOU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4474 · BNA → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?