Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4489 · LAS → DAL

departs 2:40 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±11 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ DAL is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4489 · LAS → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?