Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4497 · MDW → HOU
departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 9:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.15 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.