Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4498 LANDED 9:32 PM MT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

WN 4498 · LAS → ABQ

took off 7:28 PM PT · landed 9:32 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ABQ (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4498 · LAS → ABQ

Odds over time