Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4499
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4499 · MDW → JAX
departs 8:40 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 3.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.