Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4527 · ONT → HNL
departs 8:00 AM PT · arrives 10:50 AM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
↑
ONT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.