Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4530 · BNA → RIC
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
RIC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.