Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4539 · OAK → LAS
departs 4:45 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.