Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4541 · SJC → LAX
departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.