Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4553 LANDED 12:03 AM ET, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4553 · BWI → ISP

took off 11:21 PM ET · landed 12:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ 10pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ISP usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

ISP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4553 · BWI → ISP

Odds over time