Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4561 · BNA → CHS
departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 59% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
CHS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.