Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 456
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 456 · LGB → HNL
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:45 AM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 5%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
↓
7am departures from LGB are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.