Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4576 LANDED 11:24 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4576 · SAN → STL

took off 6:19 PM PT · landed 11:24 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4576 · SAN → STL

Odds over time