Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4577
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4577 · BWI → BUF
departs 10:55 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.