Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4592 LANDED 10:58 PM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4592 · BNA → LGA

took off 8:17 PM CT · landed 10:58 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ BNA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

LGA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4592 · BNA → LGA

Odds over time