Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4593 · MCI → PNS
departs 9:10 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.53 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.