Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4605 LANDED 12:07 AM PT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4605 · LAS → OAK

took off 11:05 PM PT · landed 12:07 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4605 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time