Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4605 · TPA → RDU
departs 10:15 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Mon 10/5 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.39 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.