Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 461 · BNA → BUR
departs 3:40 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.