Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4625
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4625 · BNA → MCI
departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.