Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4627 LANDED 11:15 PM PT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4627 · AUS → LAX

took off 10:34 PM CT · landed 11:15 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.38 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4627 · AUS → LAX

Odds over time