Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4649 · MCI → BNA
departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.