Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4653 · MDW → SRQ
departs 7:50 AM CT · arrives 11:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↑
SRQ is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.