Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4670 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4670 · FLL → BWI

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.23 in

BWI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4670 · FLL → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?