Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4684 · AUS → STL
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.42 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.