Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4688
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4688 · BNA → ORF
departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 2:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.