Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
WN 4693 · OAK → LAS
departs 6:10 PM PT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.