Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
WN 4728 · BNA → BUF
departs 1:15 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 633 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.15 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.