Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4736 · BWI → MHT
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.