Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4738
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4738 · BZN → MDW
departs 7:35 AM MT · arrives 11:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 5%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from BZN are usually not late
Weather at each end
BZN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.