Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4741 · ELP → DAL
departs 7:20 AM MT · arrives 10:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.