Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4746
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4746 · LGA → MDW
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 56%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.