Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4786 · DAL → COS
departs 7:20 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.55 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.