Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 478 · HOU → BNA
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.41 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.