Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4795 · PNS → MCI
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 4:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.53 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.