Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 480 · SMF → ONT
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ONT at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.