Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4812
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4812 · STL → CMH
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↓
STL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.