Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 481 · SAT → BNA
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
72%
chance · ±0 pts
+40 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
72%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
35%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +40 pts in 24h
+40 pts
72%
Yes 72%
No 28%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
28%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.48 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,633 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.