WN 483 · BNA → AUS

took off 10:44 PM CT · expected to land 12:31 AM CT (scheduled 10:22 PM CT → 12:44 AM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day

↑ 10pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

AUS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 483 · BNA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?