Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4846 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4846 · PHX → SAN

departs 12:45 PM MT · arrives 1:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4846 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?