Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4864 · MDW → GEG
departs 11:50 AM CT · arrives 1:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
↓
Arrivals into GEG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
GEG (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.