Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
WN 4876 · SAN → TUS
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.