Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4905 LANDED 8:30 PM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4905 · PHX → BUR

took off 7:30 PM MT · landed 8:30 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4905 · PHX → BUR

Odds over time