Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4913 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4913 · STL → SRQ

departs 3:00 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SRQ that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 3pm departures from STL are often late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ SRQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

SRQ (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.99 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4913 · STL → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?