Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4917 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4917 · BOS → STL

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4917 · BOS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?