Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4919
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4919 · BUR → OAK
departs 7:05 AM PT · arrives 8:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.