Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4927
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4927 · OAK → SNA
departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 10:00 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 4%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at OAK that day
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
8am departures from OAK are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.